The Atlanta Braves avoided a sweep with an 8-1 win in Pittsburgh Sunday and will return to Truist Park Monday where they will begin a seven-game homestand with a four-game series against the Washington Nationals.
The offense finally broke out again in Sunday’s win with 14 hits and a pair of homers, but the mood was dampened by the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. to an apparent knee injury. Acuña doubled to lead off the game, but injured his knee on the base paths while threatening a delayed steal of third. Brian Snitker said after Sunday’s game that they won’t know anything until after they get Acuña checked out back in Atlanta. Acuña spoke with reporters after the game and said that he was going on the Injured List.
While it appears that the Braves have lost Acuña for at least the near term, they could get back a couple of lineup regulars as soon as Monday. Austin Riley missed his 14th straight game in Pittsburgh on Sunday, but could be ready to return for the series opener. Riley has ramped up slowly since experiencing soreness in his side on May 12 in New York. He took batting practice on the field over the weekend.
Monday could also mark the return of catcher Sean Murphy to the active roster. Murphy suffered an oblique strain on Opening Day in Philadelphia and has been on the shelf ever since. He began a rehab assignment at Gwinnett earlier this week.
The Nationals come into the series with a 23-28 record, good for third place in the NL East. Washington has hovered around the .500 mark all season but have lost 10 of their last 14 games overall. They just wrapped up a 3-3 homestand by taking two of three from the Seattle Mariners, which was just their second series win in May, and their first in six tries.
Washington’s pitching staff has been much, much better than expected, and has arguably been a top five staff so far. They have the sixth-best staff FIP- (93) and 13th-best staff xFIP- (98). Only two teams in the majors have allowed fewer homers, and both of those teams (Royals, Mets) have allowed 42 homers to the Nats’ 43. They’ve managed all this without Josiah Gray, who is on the Injured List with a strained elbow. Instead, they’ve gotten basically stellar production out of Trevor Williams, Mackenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, and fringy prospect/rookie Mitchell Parker. The turnaround for most of those guys has been kind of crazy. Williams was below replacement last year, Gore had serious homer problems, Irvin pitched like a fourth or fifth starter at best, and Parker was doing okay but not really wowing at Double-A.
The bullpen, too, has had a bunch of great performances from castoffs. Hunter Harvey has been dominant, while Dylan Floro, Derek Law, and Robert Garcia have all been more than solid.
That said, with an against-the-grain offensive approach, the Nats haven’t really had any success offensively. Their 89 wRC+ ranks 25th in the majors, and while their team .306 xwOBA suggests they’ve had a spot of poor fortune, it’s not actually any good either. The Nats are last in barrel rate, bottom five-ish in most quality of contact stats, and are mostly in the business of trying to roll the ball the other way through the infield. They also run a ton, and are second in the majors in steals despite a .302 team OBP. C.J. Abrams is having a real breakout year and Luis Garcia is finally showing something really good after four years of horrible play, but the rest of the lineup is either running big xwOBA overperformances or just not really doing anything. Nearly 40 percent of their offensive PAs have gone to guys who are currently below replacement level, which is why their position player corps is as bad as it is. Defensive problems from Jesse Winker (forced into left field), Abrams, and Lane Thomas have also hampered the team.
Monday, May 27, 4:10 p.m. ET
Mitchell Parker (7 GS, 38.0 IP, 20.9 K%, 5.2 BB%, 3.32 ERA, 3.44 FIP)
Rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker will get the start for the Nationals in the series opener Monday. Parker joined the rotation when Josiah Gray went on the Injured List and has pitched incredibly well, despite coming into the season with fringy prospect pedigree at best. He allowed three runs over six innings and struck out seven in his last start against the Twins. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts and has gone at least five innings in six of seven. There’s nothing mirage-like in his profile, either, as he has an 82 ERA-, 86 FIP-, and 86 xFIP-; even his xERA is right in line with those figures.
Parker doesn’t throw hard, but his four-seamer has great shape that makes his 92 mph average velocity play up. His curveball probably won’t stay as good as it has been, but the real weapon here is a splitter that completely bamboozles hitters — except when they lay off of it and earn a walk.
Charlie Morton (9 GS, 51.0 IP, 24.8 K%, 10.0 BB%, 3.35 ERA, 3.89 FIP)
Charlie Morton will make his tenth start of the season for the Braves in Monday’s Memorial Day matchup. Morton allowed two runs (one earned) and tied a season high with eight strikeouts in five innings during his last start against the Cubs. Morton ran up a high pitch count through the first two innings, but recovered to give Atlanta five innings. He’s been erratic his last two starts from a command standpoint and has issued seven walks in his last eight innings, all of which have come against the Cubs.
While Morton has 16 starts and a 4.47 FIP / 3.93 xFIP against the Nationals in his career, he’s done much better as a Brave, with a 3.15 FIP and 3.30 xFIP over six starts spanning the last three seasons.
Tuesday, May 28, 7:20 p.m. ET
Jake Irvin (10 GS, 57.0 IP, 19.0 K%, 3.9 BB%, 3.79 ERA, 3.58 FIP)
Righty Jake Irvin will get the start for the Nationals in Tuesday’s matchup. Irvin allowed two runs and struck out six over 6 1/3 innings in his last outing against the Twins. He’s logged at least five innings in nine of his 10 starts this season. Like Parker, he has a 94/90/96 line that doesn’t suggest any kind of scary regression towards his much poorer performance in 2023.
There’s nothing all that interesting about Irvin’s pitches. He did add a cutter this year, but he’s mostly just benefiting from pounding the zone. I suppose one could hang their hat on his horrid xERA being a sign of regression to come, but so long as he continues to pound the zone he might just get away with it.
Irvin has faced the Braves once in his career, last September and was horrible, getting chased after 2 2/3 innings with a 1/3 K/BB ratio and five runs charged to him.
Max Fried (10 GS, 58.2 IP, 20.4 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.38 ERA, 3.50 FIP)
Max Fried gave the Braves a big boost on the last road trip by tossing a complete game against the Cubs. He allowed three hits and two runs, but only one was earned, while racking up a season-high nine strikeouts. Since allowing 10 runs over his first five innings, Fried has a 2.01 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over his last eight starts combined. Fried has a 4.22 ERA with a 2.66 FIP and 3.39 xFIP in 20 career appearances against the Nationals. He faced them twice last season and allowed two runs in 9 1/3 innings; those two outings were his first and last of the regular season.
Wednesday, May 29, 7:20 p.m. ET
MacKenzie Gore (10 GS, 53.1 IP, 27.6 K%, 7.6 BB%, 3.04 ERA, 3.14 FIP)
Lefty MacKenzie Gore will start Wednesday’s game for Washington. Gore put together a good showing in 2023 with a 94 xFIP-, but got absolutely murdered by the longball (110 FIP-). So far, he has taken another step forward in 2024 by cutting down on his homer problems. Gore is coming off one of his best starts of the season where he limited the Mariners to four hits and one run to go along with eight strikeouts in seven innings.
He’s still allowed homers in five of his ten starts this season, but it’s never been more than a homer per start. He had seven multihomer starts last year, and only nine homerless starts in 27 tries.
Gore has faced the Braves three times in his career and has allowed eight runs and three homers in 15 2/3 innings, but that was when he was still quite homer-prone. Weirdly enough, he made both his major league debut and 2023 season debut against the Braves.
TBD
The Braves haven’t announced their pitching plan for Wednesday’s game. Ray Kerr made his first major league start Friday in Pittsburgh and would be on normal rest. Allan Winans hasn’t pitched since May 17, so his status is unclear. Dylan Dodd pitched Sunday for Gwinnett. Bryce Elder and Darius Vines aren’t eligible to return without someone going to the Injured List.
Thursday, May 30, 7:20 p.m. ET
Trevor Williams (10 GS, 51.0 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 2.29 ERA, 2.77 FIP)
Veteran righty Trevor Williams will get the nod for the Nationals in Thursday’s series finale. Williams has been an unsung hero for Washington’s rotation through the first two months of the season posting a 2.29 ERA and a 2.77 FIP over his first 10 starts. Unlike the other starters profiled here, he does have an xFIP much higher than his ERA and FIP (57/70/95), but the xFIP isn’t bad at all. He’s not going deep in games, but he’s been effective while in there. He allowed one run and struck out eight in five innings in his last start against Seattle.
One thing that’s interesting about Williams is that while his overall line is great, it’s been a mix of fantastic and poor outings for him, perhaps moreso than you’d expect from a line that has such good results. He has two games with an 8/0 K/BB ratio under his belt and another with a 7/1 ratio, but also three games with more walks than strikeouts. He’s been really helped by allowing just two homers in ten starts, but those two homers came in his last three games, so the worm may be turning.
A five-pitch junkballer where almost everything sinks, Williams has emphasized a sweeper that actually doesn’t have extra downward tilt this year; the pitch has a whiff rate approaching 50 percent. In theory, it’s possible to wait out his offerings and sit on his four-seamer, which is the only pitch he really throws anywhere above the knees with any regularity, but hitters have been eviscerated in doing that because whereas last year he was predictably throwing more four-seamers to get back in the count, this year he’s throwing basically everything until he gets to three balls or two strikes, and actually using the four-seamer as a put-away pitch, perhaps contradicting the scouting report.
Williams faced the Braves twice last season and allowed 14 hits, but just four runs in 8 1/3 innings with a 10/3 K/BB ratio. The Braves actually lost both of those games. He’s actually been kinda wildly successful against the Braves for his whole career: despite a career 4.36/4.56/4.61 line, his line against the Braves is 3.48/3.33/3.55 — perhaps he’s the new John Lannan.
Reynaldo López (9 GS, 51.1 IP, 23.3 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.75 ERA, 2.85 FIP)
Reynaldo López will make his second straight start on normal rest for Atlanta in Thursday’s finale. The Braves have done well to give Lopez extra days when possible in order to keep his innings down after converting him back to a starter. He wasn’t sharp in his previous start in Pittsburgh, allowing five hits and three runs (two earned) with a 3/1 K/BB ratio. He exited after 4 2/3 innings after a rain delay. Lopez broke in with the Nationals in 2016 and will be facing them for the second time in his career. His once career appearance came in 2019 as a member of the White Sox and he struggled, allowing six runs in just four innings, including two homers and a 4/4 K/BB ratio.
