We had a winning record last week, but not a winning week when it came to my top five picks. Weird how that happens sometimes.
I picked against the team with the longest active losing streak in the NFL. That did not work out. I picked the Tennessee Titans to beat the Indianapolis Colts like they always do. That did not happen. And then the Buffalo Bills were too jet-lagged to play in the first half vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. At least picking against the Carolina Panthers worked out again.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 11-12-2
Overall ATS record: 36-39-3
Straight up record: 48-30
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network,fubo)
I backed the Titans last week and they let me down, so I'm fading them now. The Titans are usually great on defense, but without Teair Tart in the middle and Jeffery Simmons hurt, they allowed Zack Moss to look like Adrian Peterson with 195 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Simmons sometimes isn't the same player when he's banged-up, and Tart missed practice on Wednesday with his toe injury. Additionally, wide receiverTreylon Burks has missed the last two games with a knee injury, and he didn't practice on Wednesday either.
The Titans have allowed 14 plays of 25+ yards this season, which is tied for third-most in the NFL. Zay Flowers and Lamar Jackson appear to be a budding dynamic duo, and they should be angry/motivated by how last week's matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers ended.
According to the statistics, the Ravens are better than we realize. Baltimore is tied for second in the NFL in points per game allowed (15.0), second in yards per game allowed (266.4) and second in sacks (18) this season. Offensively, we know the Ravens can run, and now, Jackson is throwing the ball arguably better than he ever has.
Tennessee's defensive front could be banged-up, the secondary is already questionable and the offense averages 17.6 points per game. Betting against Mike Vrabel as an underdog can be dumb, but the Ravens are the better team.
The pick:Ravens -4
Projected score:Ravens 26-20
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The 49ers are the best team in the NFL, but I'm making this a best bet because Deshaun Watson is injured. He missed Week 4 vs. the Ravens, and having the bye week last week apparently wasn't enough for him to practice on Wednesday. I'm not ruling him out for Sunday, but even if he does play, I'm guessing he won't be 100%.
The 49ers are the only team that hasn't suffered an ATS loss this season, but get this: San Francisco's closest game this year was against the Los Angeles Rams, who the 49ers defeated by exactly seven points. The only reason they won by exactly seven points was because Sean McVay kicked a field goal on the very last play down 10 points. So really, the 49ers should have won every game this year by double-digits.
To recap, we have a 4-0-1 ATS team vs. an injured Watson or P.J. Walker with the number at a touchdown.
The pick:49ers -7
Projected score: 49ers 23-13
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
Everyone is high on the 4-1 Lions, but we should be relatively high on the 3-1 Buccaneers as well. They are coming off of their bye week while the Lions continue to suffer more injuries. Emmanuel Moseley is out for the year after tearing his ACL, Brian Branch is still banged-up and Jahmyr Gibbs is dealing with a hamstring injury.
The Lions are fourth in scoring this season (29.6 points per game), but I have faith in the Buccaneers defense. The Bucs have held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in three out of their four games this season, and are tied for the NFL lead in turnover margin with the 49ers (+7) and sacks allowed (4). This game could be closer than expected.
A home dog with the hook? I'll take that.
The pick:Buccaneers +3.5
Projected score:Buccaneers 27-24
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
This is a get-right spot for Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua after a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cardinals are 1-8 in their last nine games against the NFC West, and just lost James Conner to injured reserve.
Have you noticed that Stafford is slingin' the rock? He has three games with 300+ passing yards, which rank most in the NFL. The Cardinals have lost their last five road games and are getting outscored by about 12 points per game in those contests. The Cards started off strong this year by covering the spread in each of their first three games. However, they haven't covered the number in two weeks, and are coming off of their worst loss of the season at home.
The pick:Rams -7
Projected score:Rams 30-17
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Giants right tackle Evan Nealwent after his own fanbase, Saquon Barkleyappeared tocall a detractor a "b***-a** m************" while wearing street clothes on the sideline vs. the Miami Dolphins, and now, Daniel Jones is dealing with a neck injury. Things are going swimmingly for New York. You want me to pick this team to cover any point spread? They haven't covered once this year!
The Bills were upset by the Jags in London, so they are probably a tad angry. With the backing of their home crowd in prime time, expect a blowout.
The pick:Bills -14
Projected score:Bills 35-13
Other Week 6 picks
Chiefs 30-20 over Broncos (+10.5)
Commanders (+2.5) 28-27 over Falcons
Dolphins (-13.5) 28-14 over Panthers
Saints (-1.5) 24-20 over Texans
Bengals (-2.5) 27-23 over Seahawks
Jaguars (-4) 30-22 over Colts
Bears (+2.5) 23-20 over Vikings
Raiders 21-20 overPatriots (+3)
Eagles (-7) 24-16 over Jets
Cowboys (-2.5) 31-28 over Chargers
