Rosenthal: Why the Astros' path to an eighth straight ALCS appears increasingly problematic (2024)

On Saturday, the Houston Astros appeared on the verge of dropping to 4-12. They were tied in the seventh inning with the Texas Rangers, a team that had beaten them six straight times at Minute Maid Park, including all four games in the 2023 American League Championship Series. Five Astros starting pitchers were on the injured list. Their bullpen was a mess. If this wasn’t the end of the team’s remarkable run, it sure looked close.

Naturally, the Astros rallied, as they have time and time again while reaching the ALCS in each of the past seven seasons and winning the World Series twice. A seven-run seventh produced a 9-2 victory. On Sunday, the offense erupted for a third straight game without Alex Bregman, who is dealing with an illness. The result was an 8-5 triumph over the Rangers — and a stirring series victory.

By now, we should know not to count out the Astros. Not when they possess four of the best position players in the sport: Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Not when they rallied from 2 1/2 games back with three to play last season to win their third straight AL West title and sixth in seven years, the only exception coming in the shortened 2020 campaign.

Still, the Astros are 6-11. Their excitement over beating the Rangers the past two days could diminish rapidly in the next three, when they face the Atlanta Braves. All of the innings their starting pitchers threw in recent postseasons, all of the transition the organization underwent this offseason, might finally cause this mini-dynasty to collapse under its weight.

In recent months, The Athletic’s Chandler Rome has chronicled questionable decision-making by the Astros and several growing concerns. Those concerns, since the start of the season, have only grown more acute. The Astros have enough of a track record to warrant the benefit of the doubt. But here’s why their path to an eighth straight ALCS appears increasingly problematic:

The signing of Josh Hader

It’s difficult to call the addition of one of the game’s best closers a mistake. But at the very least, the Astros’ five-year, $95 million commitment to Hader, coming days after Kendall Graveman underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, was an overreaction.

Worse, the move failed to address the bullpen’s bigger issue: the loss of 207 1/3 innings with Graveman’s injury and the free-agent departures of Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton. Hader, who prefers to pitch only one inning, won’t eat into much of that deficit.

As good a back end as Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Hader might be — and each has struggled thus far — their value diminishes when the middle-inning relievers can’t hold leads. Neris, Stanek and Maton will earn a combined $19.25 million in 2024, or just slightly more than Hader. The Astros could have signed other relievers they preferred for less. Or maybe divided the money among two relievers and a starter. They still would have had Abreu and Pressly in the late innings.

Miscalculating the rotation depth

Losing out on free-agent left-hander Blake Snell was defensible — Snell signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the San Francisco Giants, with the second year a player option. Astros senior advisor Reggie Jackson, during an appearance on “The Show” podcast hosted by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman, mischaracterized Snell’s injury history but memorably said of Snell’s contract structure, “We don’t play that game.”

Fine, but lefty Jordan Montgomery and righty Michael Lorenzen were still on the open market even after Snell signed on March 18. By that time, the Astros knew they would be down four starters to start the season: Justin Verlander, José Urquidy, Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia. They already were above the luxury-tax threshold, something owner Jim Crane allowed only once previously — in 2020, when payments were suspended because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Another addition would have put them above the second threshold of $257 million.

Well, the Astros should not have signed Hader if they were so worried about the tax. And general manager Dana Brown certainly should not have claimed that the team’s internal options were just as good as the available free-agent starters. “If we have a bunch of guys that are similar to the other guys that are available,” Brown said, “why go after them? Why pay more money for the same production?”

Uh, Spencer Arrighetti, Hunter Brown and J.P. France have combined for a 12.12 ERA in seven starts — and they’re the three pitchers lined up to face the Braves the next three nights.

Montgomery signed a one-year, $25 million deal with a vesting player option for a second season, so his price might have been beyond Crane’s comfort level. But the Rangers, the Astros’ biggest rival, arguably have better young pitching coming, not to mention their own accomplished starters — Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle — recovering from injuries. And they still saw fit to sign Lorenzen to a one-year, $4.5 million deal.

Verlander, at 41, is hardly certain to stay healthy. Framber Valdez is dealing with an elbow issue the Astros believe is not serious. Maybe the Astros, like the Rangers, can piece together their rotation as the season evolves. But imagine where they would be without Ronel Blanco, who has emerged as one of the game’s biggest early surprises. And imagine how all this might crumble further if additional injuries occur and the younger starters do not improve.

The owner’s GM phase

There’s no point re-litigating Jim Crane’s treatment of former general manager James Click, to whom the owner offered only a one-year deal after winning the 2022 World Series, prompting Click to depart. But it certainly is fair to review how Crane fared running baseball operations during the nearly three months that passed before he hired Brown as GM.

The Astros signed three free agents in that time:

• Outfielder Michael Brantley (one year, $12 million): As inspirational as Brantley was in the clubhouse, his recovery from right-shoulder surgery limited him to 15 games during the 2023 regular season and eight more in the postseason. He has since retired.

• Reliever Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5 million): After a disastrous 2023 (5.08 ERA, .835 opponents’ OPS), Montero has been better in his first eight appearances of ‘24 (2.45, .644). The Astros need that level of effectiveness, considering his $11.5 million AAV and the state of their middle-inning relief.

• First baseman José Abreu (three years, $58.5 million): Abreu was coming off a decent 2022, albeit one in which he showed declining power, when the Astros signed him entering his age-36 season. He was a major disappointment for most of ‘23 before reviving in September and the postseason, and is again off to a horrible start, batting .111 with a .313 OPS.

New manager Joe Espada started the season batting Abreu fifth, and since has dropped him to sixth, seventh and eighth. He gave him two days off last week. Abreu shows certain positive signs — he hit three balls 95 mph or harder on Saturday and two more on Sunday, though both were groundouts. Crane surely doesn’t want to think about eating the more than $35 million that remains on Abreu’s contract. But Joey Loperfido, who has 10 homers in 57 at-bats at Triple A, is threatening to force the issue.

The depletion of the farm system

To some extent, the Astros are victims of their success — since 2017, they have not picked higher than 28th. They also are the victims of their illegal sign stealing, which cost them their first- and second-round picks in 2020 and ‘21.

Brown, who built his reputation in amateur scouting, would seem the perfect choice to replenish the farm system. His task, though, will not be easy. Crane last season authorized a trade of two prospects for Verlander. And in Oct. 2022, the Astros lost Oz Ocampo, the executive responsible for signing many of their international pitchers at bargain prices, to the Miami Marlins.

Much like the current Orioles, the Astros rebuilt by tanking their way to high picks and hitting on them. Between 2011 and ‘15, their first-round selections included George Springer, Carlos Correa, McCullers, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. Their system now is not nearly as productive. Before the season, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked it the fourth-worst in the majors.

A loss of leadership

Brantley, even while on the injured list, was a force in the clubhouse. Neris was a leader among the Latin pitchers. Catcher Martín Maldonado was an offensive detriment but a defensive wonder, building immense trust with the Astros’ pitchers.

All three are gone. Correa, another vocal presence, left after the 2021 season. The 2024 Astros not only have a new manager in Espada, but also a new regular catcher, Yainer Diaz, who is only 25. Although Espada held significant responsibility in his previous role as Dusty Baker’s bench coach, the sum effect of the Astros’ changes was perhaps bound to take an early toll.

Of course, any talk of a leadership void will fade if the offense continues producing the way it did over the weekend, reducing the pressure on the pitching staff. No matter what happens in the next series against the Braves, the return of Verlander, likely on Friday, will provide a positive jolt.

The season is barely one-tenth complete. Espada remained calm through the team’s early struggles. The players, after so many years of success, are not about to panic. The degree of difficulty, however, seems greater than it usually is for the Astros. There’s no getting around it. Their roster is flawed.

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(Top photo of Jose Abreu: Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)